Economic Analysis Concludes 99% Chance U.S. Will Enter Recession In Next 12 Months

The United States is virtually certain to enter a recession within the next 12 months, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Conference Board. 

“The most recent recession probability estimates, based on our probability model, remain near 99 percent pointing to the likelihood of a recession in the US within the next 12 months,” the analysis said. “This supports our expectation of a recession to start in early 2023 and last through the third quarter largely due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes. The first three quarters of 2023 are likely to see zero or negative real GDP growth rates.”

“While recession probability hovered near zero after the initial phase of the global pandemic from September 2020 to March 2022, it rose to over 30 percent in April and reached 50 percent in May,” it added. “This means that the US economy is likely to enter a recession within a year from that point onward. The probability has kept rising since then.”

The news comes as the Biden administration continues to deny the signs of U.S. economic weakness. Earlier this week, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that the U.S. has a “strong economy” because of “the work” done by President Biden.

“We understand what the American people are feeling, that is why we have made it a priority to do everything that we can to lower costs for Americans,” Jean-Pierre said.

“We do not see a recession or pre-recession. We see a strong economy and it’s because of the work that this president has done,” she added.